Weekly Briefing: Key Policy Developments
This weekly briefing provides overviews of the top policy developments that business leaders should monitor.
Key policy and political developments for the week ended January 19, 2024:
Taiwan rebukes China in presidential election: Lai Ching-te of Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) won the country’s presidential election on January 13 with more than 40% of the vote. Lai’s rivals in the election argued for closer ties with China, and Chinese President Xi Jinping has claimed that Taiwan’s reunification with China was an “historical inevitability.” The Chinese government warned before the election that Lai “would continue to follow the evil path of provoking ‘independence,’” and take Taiwan “ever further away from peace and prosperity, and ever closer to war and decline.” President Joe Biden stated after the election that “[w]e do not support [Taiwan’s] independence.” Later in the week, Taiwan reported Chinese military activity around Taiwan.
Trump wins Iowa Republican caucuses: Former president Donald Trump won a landslide victory in the Iowa Republican caucuses with more than 50% of the vote. The win makes him a near-lock to win the Republican presidential nomination and solidifies his control over the Republican Party. A return of Trump to the presidency would bring a more protectionist turn on trade and tariffs, including a proposed 10% universal tariff; changes in the current climate change policy, including repeal of energy tax credits; and a tougher approach to China. It could also bring reduced support for Ukraine.
Macron outlines conservative direction for France: French President Emmanuel Macron outlined a new conservative vision for France with a promise for a “stronger and fairer” country in his third national press conference at the Elysee palace. Macron touted security, stronger borders, a reinforced police force, a stronger policy against drug trafficking, and a more flexible labor market. The change is part of a newfound effort to stop the far right’s surge ahead of the European election. Macron reportedly is concerned that nationalist party leader Marine Le Pen will succeed him as president in 2027.
Additional reading
Economy
What we really know about the global economy (FT)
Growing income inequality is driving public mistrust (FT)
Accelerating Europe: Competitiveness for a new era (McKinsey)
Congress announces major tax deal to expand child tax credit and revive breaks for businesses (NBC)
Energy and climate
In first look at 2025, OPEC expects robust oil demand growth (Reuters)
Market to be short oil from 2025 onwards, Occidental CEO at Davos (Reuters)
IEA raises 2024 oil demand forecast but lags OPEC view (Reuters)
Shell under fire from Europe’s largest asset manager over climate policy (Carbon Brief)
Shell will sell big piece of its Nigeria oil business, but activists want pollution cleaned up first (AP)
China's BYD in talks with Brazil's Sigma Lithium on supply deal, Financial Times reports (Reuters)
Why US strikes in Middle East are rekindling fears over oil and inflation (FT)
Massive expansion of renewable power opens door to achieving global tripling goal set at COP28 (IEA)
U.S. politics
A Wary World Braces for Trump’s Return to the White House (Bloomberg)
Davos Elite Size Up the Global Risks of Another Trump Presidency (Bloomberg)
Trump Is Already Reshaping Geopolitics (Foreign Affairs)
Donald Trump is winning. Business, beware (The Economist)
Biden and lawmakers seek path forward on Ukraine aid and immigration at White House meeting (CBS)
Supreme Court will consider major case on power of federal regulatory agencies (Scotusblog)(Roll Call)
Culture wars represent one of the biggest business risks in 2024 (Axios)
Trade and supply chain
Britain sets out plan to strengthen critical supply chains (Reuters)(report)
Geopolitics and the geometry of global trade (McKinsey)
Investment
Canada clamps down on researchers with ties to China, Iran, Russia (Reuters)
Geopolitics